Thai foreign policy at crossroads
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Thailand
Thailand
Panpree Phahitthanukorn submitted his resignation as foreign minister on Sunday almost immediately after a sweeping Cabinet reshuffle, in which he was relieved from his concurrent assignment as deputy prime minister. He could not imagine himself having to report to another deputy prime minister in his conduct of Thailand’s foreign policy. It was his bitter divorce from the Srettha Administration.
The reshuffle was unthinkable to Panpree. For, as a key member of the influential Rachakhrue faction, he was considered an insider all along in the Phue Thai establishment, which grabbed power in August last year amid a floundering democracy and embedded instability.
Whoever might succeed Panpree would have a tough job ahead. As a small, middle-income country, it is not easy for Thailand to navigate its own destiny in foreign affairs amidst fierce superpower rivalries.
Look at how Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, played hardball politics with China during his visit to China last week. He issued an ultimatum to Xi Jingping, the president of the People’s Republic of China, to cut off ties with Russia, otherwise the US would impose a series of sanctions against China, threatening economic ruins. The Chinese firmly held its ground without budging an inch. Blinken vowed China would pay dearly for its decision to veer off the US rule-based order.
Global politics has become increasingly confrontational, threatening to break out into a full-blown Third World War. If Thailand were to face this similar kind of pressure, it would be a huge challenge, with prudence, just to muddle through.
To be fair, Panpree did accomplish something concrete during his tenure as foreign minister. He pursued an aggressive foreign policy to further open up Thailand to foreign investment. Thailand has returned to the global radar, with more friendly countries and growing interest from foreign companies to invest in Thailand. He worked tirelessly to help bring home the Thai nationals being held hostage by the Hamas at the height of the Hamas-Israeli war. Through his efforts, more than 8,000 Thai nationals have also managed to return to Thailand safely from Israel. Another 1,000 Thais from Myanmar have also been rescued to safety.
Panpree also played a role in reaching visa-free agreements with several countries, including China. Thailand’s relations with Asean, the EU, India have improved. Bangkok also played host to negotiations between Jake Sullivan, the advisor to the US National Security Council, and Wang Yi, the Chinese foreign minister, under Panpree’s watchful eyes.
Still, Panpree could have done more in a foreign-policy pursuit to embrace a multi-polar world. Russia has announced that Thailand is one of more than 30 countries showing an interest to join the BRICS, which now boast 10 member countries. But, it seems that Panpree did not pay enough attention or launch meaningful lobbying efforts to help Thailand secure a seat in the BRICS, which is laying down a foundation for a new global economic and financial order. BRICS is rich in natural resources and could become becoming a huge market for Thai exports and investment going forward. Trading in local currencies amongst the member countries is another appealing aspect of joining BRICS. Most importantly, a multi - polar world, exemplified by BRICS, serves the interests of all nations.
There have been talks at the Government House that Panpree’s successor could likely be Maris Sa-ngiemphong, a former advisor to Panpree himself. He used to work closely with Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin and accompanied him in numerous foreign trips. Maris is a former diplomat and a confidant to Thaksin Shinawatra, who still mustered his influence in the Cabinet reshuffle. It remains to be seen whether Maris would actually succeed Panpree. His key challenges, if appointed, will be to manouver Thailand’s foreign policy forward while artfully navigating the current geopolitical struggles between competing superpowers. This has to be accomplished without sacrificing Thailand’s national interest and to be open to embracing a multi-polar world that benefits all nations.
By Thanong Khanthong
29/4/2024
